A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
