Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
